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Black market currency traders in Sudan put their business on hold on Sunday to assess the impact of new government measures aimed at closing a wide gap between the official and unofficial forex rates.

From Monday, official foreign exchange bureaus will be allowed to buy and sell dollars based on the unofficial market rate rather than the official value of 2.7 Sudanese pounds for one dollar, said Abdelmoneim Nour al-Din, deputy general secretary of the forex dealers’ association.

He said his association would announce a daily price and start buying at 5.2 pounds per dollar, slightly off last week’s black market rate of 5.8 pounds to the dollar.

For the illegal black market traders who do business from street corners or cubbyhole offices, the new rules mean uncertainty.

“We’re gonna wait and see,” said one, who like many others had suspended operations.

“Today we stopped doing business. We will hold onto the foreign currency we have until the market stabilises” and the new rate becomes clearer, said another trader.

Bankrupt Sudan has lost billions of dollars in oil receipts since South Sudan gained independence last year, leaving Sudan plagued by soaring prices, a severe shortage of dollars needed to pay for imports, and a plunging currency.

The black market rate jumped above six pounds per dollar after South Sudan occupied the north’s main oil region of Heglig in April, during border fighting which raised fears of all-out war between Sudan and South Sudan.

The government has stuck to its fixed exchange rate of about 2.7 pounds for one US dollar, but the black market rate has been well above 4.0 since late last year.

Asked whether the new rules for forex bureaus amounted to a devaluation, one economist said the answer was unclear and he was still trying to figure out what had happened.

“This is really legalisation of the black market,” said another analyst, University of Khartoum economist Mohamed Eljack Ahmed. He added that the black market rate had essentially become the official rate.

He doubted the new rules will increase the amount of dollars in the economy or bring down the black market rate. Illegal traders would buy from the official dealers and hold their currency to sell at a profit.

At the same time, he said the measures will increase prices of imported goods, adding to the burden of Sudan’s poor already struggling with an inflation rate that jumped to 28.6 percent in April.

One black market trader said the illegal rate will fall only if the central bank can inject currency into the market. “If not, the rate will go higher and higher,” he predicted.

Local media reports last week said the government had received a large inflow of foreign cash which would help to strengthen the pound.

But if that were the case, the university economist asked, why had the government adopted the new rules for forex bureaus? Even if there had been an inflow of dollars from abroad, the government had not revealed the amount.

Article source: http://news.yahoo.com/sudans-forex-black-market-hold-113933395.html

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Mon May 21, 2012 1:37am BST

* Euro little changed, commodity currencies still under
pressure

* Markets cautious despite G8 pledge to combat market
turmoil

By Ian Chua

SYDNEY, May 21 (Reuters) – The euro started the week on a
subdued note and commodity currencies remained mired at
multi-month lows as investors found little comfort in a pledge
by world leaders to take all steps necessary to combat financial
turmoil.

The single currency last stood at $1.2786, a touch
firmer than its New York close on Friday as markets saw
Saturday’s comments from a summit of the G8 leading
industrialised nations as short on details and long on rhetoric.

At the meeting, world leaders also backed keeping Greece in
the euro zone and revitalising a global economy increasingly
threatened by Europe’s debt crisis.

“There’s a lot of talk and no substance. Until you get some
certainty about Greece and the fear of contagion eases, the
volatility is here to stay,” said Savanth Sebastian, an
economist at CommSec.

“Keep in mind there’s no great news coming out of China as
well. There’s a lot of talk about China slowing, so that’s
further uncertainty.”

On Friday, the euro was swept up by a wave of short-covering
that lifted it from a four-month trough of $1.2642. That low
should provide initial support, ahead of the 2012 low at
$1.2624. A break there would take the single currency back to
depths not seen since August 2010.

Worries about a messy Greek exit from the euro zone and
problems in Spain’s banking sector had seen investors dumping
the euro in the past few weeks.

“A Greek exit would produce significant contagion to other
peripheral countries, where both sovereigns and banks would come
under pressure. Limiting the damage of contagion would depend
crucially on the speed and magnitude of the policy response,”
JPMorgan analysts wrote in a report.

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
released on Friday showed bets against the euro had risen to a
record high.

Not surprisingly, the safe-haven U.S. dollar and yen were
among the best performers last week. The greenback on Friday hit
a four-month high against a basket of major currencies.
It was trading slightly off that peak on Monday.

It was underperforming the yen, however, and last stood at
79.15, not far off a three-month low around 79.00 set on
Friday.

The CFTC data showed a lightening of bearish yen bets,
although substantial short positions remained. This has left
intact the risk of further downside for dollar/yen if such
positions are forced to unwind, analysts said.

“We think that a move below 79.00 could trigger such a
squeeze and cause an accelerated move toward 78, where a threat
of intervention would likely provide the cross with support,”
BNP Paribas analysts wrote in a note.

Against a jittery backdrop, commodity currencies such as the
Australian dollar continued to struggle. The Aussie was last at
$0.9835, still within striking distance of a near
six-month trough of $0.9795 plumbed on Friday.

There is little in terms of market-moving data out of Asia
on Monday, leaving the focus firmly on developments in Europe.

(Editing by Joseph Radford)

Article source: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/05/21/markets-forex-idUKL4E8GL00B20120521

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Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
May 20, 2012 – 09:45 AM

By: Tony_Caldaro

A nasty week in most of the world’s stock markets as the current downtrend extended. The SPX/DOW lost 3.9%, the biggest weekly drop since November, and the NDX/NAZ lost 5.3%. Asian markets were -4.0%, European markets were -5.0%, and the DJ World index lost 5.4%. Economic reports for the week were mixed with negatives edging out positives 7 to 6. On the uptick: the NY FED, the NAHB, housing starts, industrial production, capacity utilization, and the WLEI. On the downtick: retail sales, the CPI, business inventories, building permits, the Philly FED, leading indicators, and jobless claims rose. Next week we will get a look at more housing data, durable goods orders and consumer sentiment. Best to your week!

LONG TERM: bull market

Despite the US market doubling between 2009 and 2011, and making new highs in 2012, this has not been a steady uptrending bull market. Unlike the steady 2002-2007 bull market, see weekly chart below, this one has run into four straight spring swoons to the downside in the past four years. The first one started at the end of the first bull market uptrend, in June 2009. It ended with a 9.1% correction. The second started with the conclusion of Major wave 1 of Primary I, in April 2010. It ended with a 17% correction. The third one started at the conclusion of Primary I, May 2011. It ended with a 22% correction. This fourth one started this April, and has thus far corrected 9.1%. Notice the Jun09 correction was also 9.1%, as was the Jan10 correction. In fact, the 9.1% correction level has marked the end of two of this bull market’s six corrections. The other two, not mentioned, were the Feb11 7.4% and Oct11 10.4% corrections. These are noted on the weekly chart.

Our long term count from the Mar09 bear market low at SPX 667 remains unchanged. We counted five Major waves up to SPX 1370 in May11, ending Primary wave I. Then an elongated flat to SPX 1075 into Oct11, ending Primary wave II. Primary wave III has been underway since then. After this week’s market action, however, our Primary wave III count has come under some pressure. The slight dip on friday to SPX 1292 momentarily overlapped the previous uptrend high of 1293. On thursday we considered this possibility when we noted there were a few additional potential counts if it occurred.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrending

Currently we are maintaining the Major 1-2-3-4 count posted on the daily chart below. Should the DOW overlap its previous uptrend as well, remember the DOW is the bellwether, then the count will likely require adjustment.

The first alternate count is the most obvious. Primary wave II ended in Oct11 at SPX 1075. Then Major wave 1 and 2 ended at SPX 1293 and 1159 respectively, and the recent uptrend was Intermediate wave i of Major 3 ending at 1422. Intermediate wave ii would be under way now. This would suggest a, worse case, decline into the SPX 1202-1267 area.

The second alternate count is suggested by the bellwether DOW. Again Primary wave II ended in Oct11. Then the market rallied five waves up from that low, in Intermediate waves (i-ii-iii-iv-v), to complete Major wave 1 of Primary III. Remember the DOW had five trend changes, waves, from the Primary II low into its May12 high. This would suggest a, worse case, decline into the DOW 11,232-12,284 and SPX 1159-1293 area.

The third alternative, and least preferred, suggests only Major wave A of Primary II completed in Oct11 at SPX 1075. The advance from that low was an abc Major wave B of Primary II. Major wave C would now be underway to retest that low, and complete Primary II. This would suggest a, worse case, decline into the SPX 1075-1100 area or lower. Certainly this is the worse case scenario.

Keep in mind the overlap that would trigger one of these three alternate counts has not occurred yet. If it does, and considering the current state of the foreign and commodity markets, we would place a 40% probability on each of the first two counts and a 20% probability on the last count. This has been an historically difficult bull market. Should this correction extend into June, we would prefer the DOW count. During this bull market corrections to Major waves or larger have taken from 1 – 5 months, while smaller waves have only taken one month. These charts are all posted at the very end, page 17, of the public stockcharts … link below.

SHORT TERM

Support for the SPX is at the 1291 and 1261 OEW pivots, with resistance at the 1303 and 1313 pivots. Short term momentum is starting to display a positive divergence. The short term OEW charts remain on a negative bias from SPX 1395, with the positive swing level now in the mid 1330′s.

This correction, needless to state, has declined slightly more than our SPX 1300 – 1340 general range, and much more than our SPX 1313 – 1327 expected range. Medium and long term momentum is now at its lowest level since August 2011. The last time the market had this type of selling pressure (2011) it rallied over 100 SPX points in just six trading days. The two previous times, during this bull market, it rallied 90 points in 6 trading days (2010), and 100+ points in 8 trading days (2009).

Remaining with our posted count. It appears this correction has an Intermediate wave A flat followed by an Intermediate wave C zigzag. The wave relationships from the SPX 1422 uptrend high are displaying some equality. Minor a of Int. A dropped 65 points, SPX 1422-1357. Now Minor A and C of Int. C have declined 72 and 74 points respectively. In fact, the total decline for Int. C = 2 x Int. A between SPX 1285 and 1289.

When examining the internal wave structure of the declines we find Minor a of Int. A was a simple 7 waves, and Minor a of Int. C was also a simple 7 waves. Minor c of Int C, however, has recently extended to 13 waves. This is an incomplete corrective wave and needs at least one more small rally and decline. The SPX 1285-1289 area would fit quite nicely for a low.

From a fibonacci perspective SPX 1291 represents a 50% retracement of the entire uptrend from 1159-1422. The next retracement support would be the 61.8% level or SPX 1259. Both of these levels are at the support pivots: 1291 and 1261. Heading into next week, if the OEW 1291 pivot range, (SPX 1284-1298), does not hold the market is likely heading toward the 61.8% retracement level at the 1261 pivot range. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were all lower on the week losing 4.0%. Only China, of the 8 indices we track, remains in an uptrend.

The European markets were also all lower on the week losing 5.0%. All 7 indices we track are in downtrends.

The Commodity equity group all fell as well losing 7.8% on the week. All 3 indices we track are in downtrends.

The DJ World index continues to downtrend and lost 5.4% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to uptrend, gaining 0.6%, as the 10yr Bond made a new all time high. Ten year yields are near all time lows of 1.696%. The 30yr is approaching 2011 levels 2.694%.

Crude continues to downtrend, losing 4.4% on the week. The recent market action here looks quite similar to the spring of 2009, 2010, and 2011. Those declines were 21%, 23% and 34% respectively as noted on the weekly chart, page 9. The current decline is 18%.

Gold had a wild week. After being down over $50 it rallied to end the week with a 0.6% gain. The downtrend may have bottomed at wednesday’s $1527 low, after hitting its most oversold medium and long term level since 2008.

The USD continues to uptrend gaining 1.3% on the week. The downtrending EUR lost 1.1%, while the uptrending JPY gained 1.2%.

NEXT WEEK

A light calendar ahead, economically, kicks off on tuesday with Existing home sales. On wednesday New home sales and the FHFA housing index will be reported. Thursday weekly Jobless claims and Durable goods orders. Then on friday Consumer sentiment. The FED has nothing scheduled ahead of the Memorial day holiday next monday. Best to your weekend and week!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/…

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It’s been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2012 Tony Caldaro – All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

© 2005-2012 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk – The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis Forecasting online publication.

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Article source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34755.html

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BY JENNY STRASBURG, JACOB BUNGE AND GINA CHON

The Nasdaq Stock Market said on Sunday it bungled Facebook Inc.’s initial public offering, acknowledging that technology problems affected trading in millions of shares.

The trading glitches, coupled with underwhelming investor appetite for Facebook shares on Friday, fueled doubts about Wall Street’s ability to handle hot IPOs.

“This was not our finest hour,” said Nasdaq OMX Group Chief Executive Robert Greifeld. The main problem, he said, was a malfunction in the trading-system’s design for processing order cancellations. Extensive testing Nasdaq had performed ahead of the deal failed to unearth the problem, he said.

Nasdaq delayed the start of trading in …

Article source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303610504577416530447015656.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

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(RTTNews.com) – The Singapore stock market has moved lower now in three consecutive trading days, plummeting almost 100 points or 3.6 percent in the process. The Straits Times Index finished just below the 2,780-point plateau, and now analysts are forecasting continued selling pressure at the opening of trade on Monday.

The global forecast for the Asian markets remains soft thanks to ongoing debt concerns in Europe. Moody’s downgraded 16 Spanish banks Friday, citing rising loan defaults, a renewed recession in Spain, restricted funding access and the reduced ability of the Spanish government to support lenders. In addition, the Bank of Spain said the country’s bad loans increased further in March to the highest bad debt ratio since 1994. The European and U.S. markets finished firmly in the red, and the Asian bourses are expected to open in similar fashion.

The STI finished sharply lower on Friday following losses from the property stocks and plantations.

For the day, the index plunged 43.51 points or 1.54 percent to finish at 2,779.10 after trading between 2,762.81 and 2,789.42 on volume of 1.61 billion shares. There were 369 decliners and 68 gainers.

Among the decliners, Golden Agri-Resources plummeted 4.5 percent, while Wilmar International shed 2.8 percent, Olam International lost 0.6 percent, CapitaLand fell 3.5 percent and City Developments slipped 2.9 percent.

The lead from Wall Street continues to provide little encouragement as stocks showed another notable move to the downside on Friday after posting a lack of direction in morning trade. The pullback came despite a lack of major catalysts, with the drop reflecting the recent downward momentum for the markets as traders were reluctant to hold positions going into the weekend.

Lingering concerns about the financial situation in Europe continued to weigh on the markets, with the ongoing political uncertainty in Greece adding to worries about the outlook for the eurozone.

In addition, the Bank of Spain said the country’s bad loans increased further in March. About 8.37 percent of loans held by banks in March were unpaid for more than three months. That compares to 8.3 percent in February. This was the highest bad debt ratio since 1994.

Social networking giant Facebook attracted a lot of attention after making its debut on the NASDAQ in late morning trading. Technical issues delayed the opening by about 30 minutes. After opening notably higher, shares of Facebook fluctuated over the course of the session, eventually ending the day up by just 0.6 percent.

Meanwhile, shares of Gap (GPS) fell by 2.3 percent even though the apparel retailer reported better than expected first quarter results. The company also raised its full-year earnings guidance. Chip maker Marvell Technology (MRVL) also ended the day in the red despite reporting better than expected first quarter results.

The major averages also ended Friday firmly in negative territory, at their worst closing levels in four months. The Dow fell 73.11 points or 0.6 percent to finish at 12,369.38, while the NASDAQ plunged 34.90 points or 1.2 percent to end at 2,778.79 and the SP 500 slid 9.64 points or 0.7 percent to 1,295.22. With the losses, the averages all fell sharply for the week as the Dow dropped by 3.5 percent, while the NASDAQ and the SP 500 tumbled by 5.3 percent and 4.3 percent, respectively.

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Article source: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/more-damage-predicted-for-singapore-stock-market-20120520-00035

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5/20/2012 8:50 PM ET
(RTTNews) – The China stock market headed south again on Friday, one session after it had ended the four-day losing streak in which it had given away more than 65 points or 2.7 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index ended just below the 2,345-point plateau, and now traders are looking at continued selling pressure when the market opens on Monday.

The global forecast for the Asian markets remains soft thanks to ongoing debt concerns in Europe. Moody’s downgraded 16 Spanish banks Friday, citing rising loan defaults, a renewed recession in Spain, restricted funding access and the reduced ability of the Spanish government to support lenders. In addition, the Bank of Spain said the country’s bad loans increased further in March to the highest bad debt ratio since 1994. The European and U.S. markets finished firmly in the red, and the Asian bourses are expected to open in similar fashion.

The SCI finished sharply lower on Friday with broadly based losses, although the financial shares and properties were hit especially hard.

For the day, the index plunged 34.37 points or 1.44 percent to finish at 2,344.52 after trading between 2,338.24 and 2,369.60. The Shenzhen Composite Index dropped 1.5 percent to end at 940.91.

Among the decliners, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China dropped 1.9 percent, while China Construction Bank eased 0.7 percent, China Citic Bank retreated 1.2 percent, China Vanke shed 1.2 percent, Poly Real Estate fell 1.2 percent and Gree Real Estate lost 2.8 percent.

The lead from Wall Street continues to provide little encouragement as stocks showed another notable move to the downside on Friday after posting a lack of direction in morning trade. The pullback came despite a lack of major catalysts, with the drop reflecting the recent downward momentum for the markets as traders were reluctant to hold positions going into the weekend.

Lingering concerns about the financial situation in Europe continued to weigh on the markets, with the ongoing political uncertainty in Greece adding to worries about the outlook for the eurozone.

In addition, the Bank of Spain said the country’s bad loans increased further in March. About 8.37 percent of loans held by banks in March were unpaid for more than three months. That compares to 8.3 percent in February. This was the highest bad debt ratio since 1994.

Social networking giant Facebook attracted a lot of attention after making its debut on the NASDAQ in late morning trading. Technical issues delayed the opening by about 30 minutes. After opening notably higher, shares of Facebook fluctuated over the course of the session, eventually ending the day up by just 0.6 percent.

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